A Summary of TTREB’S 2024 Market Outlook and 2023 Year in Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is at a pivotal point, grappling with a housing affordability crisis that not only hampers the pursuit of homeownership but also has profound implications for social equity and community well-being. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), along with industry experts and policymakers, offers a nuanced understanding of this issue, backed by data and strategic insights, to navigate the complexities of the housing market and devise actionable solutions.

The 2024 market outlook reveals significant insights into the trajectory of the GTA’s housing market. TRREB forecasts a notable recovery in home sales, expecting to reach 77,000 transactions, a stark contrast to the less than 66,000 transactions recorded in 2023. However, with an average selling price projected at around $1.17 million, the market remains below the peak levels of 2022, reflecting persistent affordability challenges.

The retrospective glance at 2023 underscores these challenges, with a 12.1% decline in home sales from the previous year and an 8.6% drop in new listings. This downturn in market activity is accompanied by a 5.4% decrease in the average price of homes, illustrating the market’s volatility and the pressing need for stabilization measures.

The increasing demand for affordable housing, driven by immigration and demographic shifts, underscores the need for a strategic reevaluation of housing policies. Collaborative research with Loyalist Public Affairs highlights the critical role of immigrants in bolstering economic growth and addressing labor shortages. Yet, the integration of newcomers into the housing market necessitates a robust plan to ensure the availability of affordable housing, as evidenced by the fact that Canada now has a larger share of people aged 55 to 64 compared to those aged 15 to 24, highlighting a demographic shift with significant implications for the housing market.

The social cost of housing unaffordability, as detailed by research from CANCEA, provides a stark picture of the crisis’s impact on residents’ well-being. Households spending over 50% of their income on housing report well-being scores as low as 6.79 out of 10, illustrating the direct correlation between housing costs and quality of life. This alarming statistic emphasizes the need for urgent action to mitigate the social repercussions of unaffordable housing, which has a social value cost estimated to be 1.75 times greater than that of cancer in the GTA. Yes, believe it or not, Housing Unaffordability: Comparable to the Impact of Major Chronic Diseases!

The new homes and condos market, while experiencing a downturn in 2023, shows signs of potential recovery. The slowdown in new condominium apartment sales and a significant decline in benchmark prices by over 15% since early 2022 reflect the challenges faced by the market. However, the prospect of easing borrowing costs and a surge in demand, especially from immigrants, offers a glimmer of hope for revitalization.

The commercial market in the GTA presents a varied landscape, with the industrial sector demonstrating resilience amidst tight conditions. On the other hand, the office sector faces challenges adapting to post-pandemic work arrangements, indicating a need for innovative strategies to reinvigorate this segment of the market.

Leadership voices from TRREB, including CEO John DiMichele and President Jennifer Pearce, stress the importance of dismantling barriers to affordable housing. This sentiment is echoed by policymakers across various levels of government, who outline their commitments to increasing housing supply and affordability through innovative zoning reforms, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships.

The path to resolving the GTA’s housing affordability crisis is fraught with complexities, requiring a concerted effort that spans economic, social, and policy domains. By leveraging data-driven insights and fostering collaboration among stakeholders, there is an opportunity to craft a future where affordable housing is accessible to all residents of the GTA. The comprehensive analysis and strategic actions proposed by TRREB and its partners serve as a foundation for achieving a more equitable and sustainable housing landscape.

Source: TTREB