A Summary of TTREB’S 2024 Market Outlook and 2023 Year in Review

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is at a pivotal point, grappling with a housing affordability crisis that not only hampers the pursuit of homeownership but also has profound implications for social equity and community well-being. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), along with industry experts and policymakers, offers a nuanced understanding of this issue, backed by data and strategic insights, to navigate the complexities of the housing market and devise actionable solutions.

The 2024 market outlook reveals significant insights into the trajectory of the GTA’s housing market. TRREB forecasts a notable recovery in home sales, expecting to reach 77,000 transactions, a stark contrast to the less than 66,000 transactions recorded in 2023. However, with an average selling price projected at around $1.17 million, the market remains below the peak levels of 2022, reflecting persistent affordability challenges.

The retrospective glance at 2023 underscores these challenges, with a 12.1% decline in home sales from the previous year and an 8.6% drop in new listings. This downturn in market activity is accompanied by a 5.4% decrease in the average price of homes, illustrating the market’s volatility and the pressing need for stabilization measures.

The increasing demand for affordable housing, driven by immigration and demographic shifts, underscores the need for a strategic reevaluation of housing policies. Collaborative research with Loyalist Public Affairs highlights the critical role of immigrants in bolstering economic growth and addressing labor shortages. Yet, the integration of newcomers into the housing market necessitates a robust plan to ensure the availability of affordable housing, as evidenced by the fact that Canada now has a larger share of people aged 55 to 64 compared to those aged 15 to 24, highlighting a demographic shift with significant implications for the housing market.

The social cost of housing unaffordability, as detailed by research from CANCEA, provides a stark picture of the crisis’s impact on residents’ well-being. Households spending over 50% of their income on housing report well-being scores as low as 6.79 out of 10, illustrating the direct correlation between housing costs and quality of life. This alarming statistic emphasizes the need for urgent action to mitigate the social repercussions of unaffordable housing, which has a social value cost estimated to be 1.75 times greater than that of cancer in the GTA. Yes, believe it or not, Housing Unaffordability: Comparable to the Impact of Major Chronic Diseases!

The new homes and condos market, while experiencing a downturn in 2023, shows signs of potential recovery. The slowdown in new condominium apartment sales and a significant decline in benchmark prices by over 15% since early 2022 reflect the challenges faced by the market. However, the prospect of easing borrowing costs and a surge in demand, especially from immigrants, offers a glimmer of hope for revitalization.

The commercial market in the GTA presents a varied landscape, with the industrial sector demonstrating resilience amidst tight conditions. On the other hand, the office sector faces challenges adapting to post-pandemic work arrangements, indicating a need for innovative strategies to reinvigorate this segment of the market.

Leadership voices from TRREB, including CEO John DiMichele and President Jennifer Pearce, stress the importance of dismantling barriers to affordable housing. This sentiment is echoed by policymakers across various levels of government, who outline their commitments to increasing housing supply and affordability through innovative zoning reforms, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships.

The path to resolving the GTA’s housing affordability crisis is fraught with complexities, requiring a concerted effort that spans economic, social, and policy domains. By leveraging data-driven insights and fostering collaboration among stakeholders, there is an opportunity to craft a future where affordable housing is accessible to all residents of the GTA. The comprehensive analysis and strategic actions proposed by TRREB and its partners serve as a foundation for achieving a more equitable and sustainable housing landscape.

Source: TTREB


Toronto’s Housing Market in Review: Challenges and Predictions for 2024

Navigating November: Key Insights from GTA Real Estate Market

As we approach the end of the year, it’s time to dive into the November market snapshot for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady and a general slowdown in showings, let’s explore the trends and data that shaped the real estate market last month.

Overall Market Trends

November witnessed a continuation of the BoC’s decision to hold rates, impacting the real estate market’s dynamics. As the year winds down, a typical seasonal downward trend in activity is observed. Interestingly, despite the slower pace, multiple offers are still prevalent in certain neighbourhoods.

Decrease in Inventory

The Greater Toronto Area saw a notable decrease in inventory. This reduction is largely attributed to suspensions, cancellations, and expiries of listings. However, a silver lining appears with an anticipated slight surge in inventory starting from mid to late January.

Area-Specific Highlights

Freehold Unit Sales

In the realm of freehold units, November brought some surprises. The top two cities experiencing an increase in freehold unit sales, compared to October, were Aurora and East Gwillimbury.

Condo Apartment Sales

Condo apartments also saw a shift in momentum. The cities leading this change with increased sales were Brampton and Clarington.

In-Depth Market Analysis

Let’s take a closer look at the overall GTA market across all home types for November.

Freehold Market Overview

  • Total Sales: There were 2,666 freehold sales, marking an 8% decrease from October.
  • Average Days on Market: Properties took an average of 22 days to sell.
  • Sales Increase: 37% of GTA areas saw more sales than in October.
  • Price Trends: 38% of areas experienced an increase in average sale price.
  • Sales at or Above Asking Price: 29% of sales achieved this milestone.

Condo Apartment Market Overview

  • Total Sales: The market recorded 1,115 condo sales, 12% fewer than in October.
  • Average Days on Market: Condos averaged 29 days on the market before selling.
  • Sales Increase: 36% of GTA areas witnessed a rise in condo sales.
  • Price Trends: A more significant 48% of areas saw an increase in average sale price for condos.
  • Sales at or Above Asking Price: 20% of condos sold at or above the asking price.

Final Thoughts

As we gear up for the holiday season and the new year, it’s an opportune time to reflect on the trends and prepare for what 2024 has in store. The real estate market, ever dynamic, continues to provide interesting insights, and we’ll be here to analyze and report on these changes.

This is the TanTeam signing off for the holiday season – we’ll still be around, so don’t hestitate to call in to say hi! Let’s stay connected and informed as we navigate these evolving market conditions, wishing you a fantastic upcoming 2024!

The TanTeam Editorial

Affordability in Focus: GTA Home Sales Trends for November 2023

GTA Real Estate Market Update: October 2023 Insights

The Ever-Adaptive GTA Real Estate Landscape

As we wrapped up October, a mix of stability and fluctuations in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market was evident. Despite ongoing economic pressures, such as rising interest rates impacting consumer confidence, the market showed resilience in several aspects.

Key Trends and Statistics

  • Steady Market Dynamics: The overall market activity, in terms of average prices, units sold, and days on market, remained consistent with the previous month. This stability is a testament to the market’s ability to adjust to changing economic conditions.
  • Strong Demand in Select Areas: Interestingly, a significant number of sales were recorded at or above the asking price, indicating pockets of high demand within the GTA.
  • Varied Regional Performance: While the general market showed little monthly change, certain areas displayed remarkable growth in sales. For instance, in freehold unit sales, Pickering saw a 45% increase, followed by Markham and Mississauga, each with an 18% rise. In the condo apartment sector, Vaughan led with a 39% increase, with Richmond Hill following at 13%.

Detailed Market Breakdown

  • Freehold Properties: There were 2,886 sales, with the average days on market at 18. Nearly half of the GTA areas experienced more sales and an increase in average sale prices compared to September.
  • Condo Apartments: 1,263 units were sold, averaging 26 days on market. Many areas saw an uptick in sales and average sale prices, though only 26% of condos sold at or above asking price.

Overall Market Outlook

Despite some areas still grappling with slow showings, the overall market in the GTA is holding steady. This resilience is particularly noteworthy given the current economic backdrop and its impact on consumer behavior.

Sharing Real Market Data

As we continue to monitor these trends, it’s essential to share accurate and up-to-date market data. This information not only reflects the dynamism of the GTA real estate market but also serves as a valuable resource for stakeholders to make informed decisions.

Stay Informed

For a more detailed analysis or specific data on other Ontario markets, feel free to reach out or explore further. Keeping abreast of these changes is crucial in understanding and effectively participating in the GTA real estate market.

The TanTeam Editorial


The TanTeam’s 2023 Q4 Real Estate Radar: Let’s Talk!

The last quarter of 2023 is shaping itself into an interesting time for real estate market go-ers and here is the latest bite sized updates:

Bank of Canada Keeps Overnight Rate Stable: On September 6th, the Bank of Canada announced its decision to hold its overnight rate steady. This move, combined with the current higher-than-average listings on the market, sets the stage for an anticipated and busy last quarter of the year.

Sales Activity on the Rise: Following the Labour Day holiday, we have witnessed a notable uptick in sales activity. Home prices remain steady, although some areas are moving quicker than others. This presents a prime opportunity for those considering trading up by transferring their existing low-rate mortgages or smart-sizing to another home to create a more comfortable financial situation without sacrificing much.

Mortgages – Unlock Your Financial Options: If you purchased your property before the 2nd quarter of 2022, you may have secured historically low mortgage rates of 2.79% for a 1-year fixed or 2.15% for a variable rate. Now, you might be feeling some financial pressure. Don’t worry; there are solutions:

  • Consider refinancing, selling, or renting out your current property and explore more affordable options, perhaps with a secondary unit.
  • If you locked in at the lowest rate with a 5-year term, you can “move up” by making up the difference with additional cash or by “extending and blending” your mortgage. This means you extend your initial term or longer and pay the current rate on the additional borrowed money, ensuring you still enjoy a great rate with more house than you could have afforded a couple of years ago.

Landlords – Navigate Rent Control Challenges: For residential landlords with properties built before November 15th, 2018, subject to rent control in Ontario, we understand the growing gap between current rent and market rates may be a concern. Here are some trends to consider:

  • Some landlords are selling and reinvesting in properties where they can charge market rent.
  • Others are opting to move into their investment properties or have immediate family members do so.
  • In cases where properties are held in corporations, selling and buying anew becomes a viable option such as a “property swap”

Residential Tenants – Be Informed and Proactive: Tenants, it’s essential to stay informed and proactive in this dynamic market. If you’re paying substantially under market rent, be aware that you run a higher risk of having to move. Here’s why:

  • Landlords aim to keep up with current market rates.
  • Independent landlords can give notice and move in.
  • Both independent and corporate landlords can choose to sell.
  • Investor buyers prefer properties with rental income closer to market rent which means you might need to move out.

If paying closer to market rent isn’t an option, consider your long-term housing plans. Buying may be a viable solution. You could explore purchasing your current rental property or finding something within your budget. Either way, taking action or formulating a plan is crucial.

The real estate landscape is full of opportunities and possibilities, and we’re here to help you make the most of them. Reach out to The TanTeam today for personalized guidance tailored to your unique situation.

The TanTeam Real Estate Group

-Kai and Tan

August 2023 Housing Market: Borrowing Costs, Economic Uncertainty, and Supply Challenges Lead to Shifts in GTA Real Estate

July 2023 Sees Surging GTA Home Sales and Prices Despite Market Adjustments: A Look into the Dynamics and Challenges

Strong Demand, Tight Inventory, and Rising Prices: A Look into GTA Home Sales in June 2023

Climbing Demand and Limited Supply: GTA Housing Market Sees Soaring Sales but Faces Supply Shortage